Canadian real estate prices are pushing to new highs – just not in Western Canada. The Teranet–National Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNB HPI) is showing prices increasing across the country in September. The growth was much slower than usual for this time of year though, weighed down by weak performance in Western Canada.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Rise Slower Than Usual
The C11, an aggregate index of Canada’s largest real estate markets, made a tiny push higher last month. The C11 increased 0.09% in September, bringing year-over-year gains 0.66% higher. The index is at a new all-time high, but Western Canada was a big drag on monthly growth. The year-over-year growth is also tracking lower than inflation.
Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Continuing the summer trend, performance is weaker than usual. The monthly increase was significantly below the 21-year average for September. Most of the weakness came from B.C. real estate markets like Vancouver and Victoria. Other Western Canadian markets like Edmonton and Calgary aren’t doing so hot either.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Up 4%
The Toronto index reached a new all-time high, largely led by the condo market and come back in the 905. The index increased 0.14% in September, bringing the year-over-year movement 4.03% higher. The monthly increase was below average for the market, but still pushed the index to a new all-time high.
Toronto Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Drop Over 7%
Vancouver real estate can’t get out of its rut, even though most of Canada is still launching higher. The index dropped another 0.49% in September, bringing it 7.10% lower than the same month last year. Prices are down 7.42% from the peak reached in July 2018. Like Toronto, a lot of the positives in performance are due to condo apartments.
Vancouver Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Montreal Real Estate Prices Rise Over 6%
Montreal real estate printed a new high, and made one of the largest movements in the country. The index jumped 0.99% in September, bringing it 6.28% higher than last year. This is a new all-time high for the market, which led national growth until recently.
Montreal Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Calgary Real Estate Is Down Almost 2%
Calgary real estate remains firmly below peak, almost half a decade later. The city’s index increased 0.20% in September, bringing prices 1.93% lower than last year. Prices are still down 5.71% from the peak, which occurred in October 2014. Prairie markets, often linked to oil prices, have underperformed the past few years.
Calgary Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate prices are growing, which is generally a good thing. That’s the good news. The bad news is the monthly movement was barely one, and came in under the 21-year average for September. Most of this weakness can be attributed to Western Canada, where prices have been in the dumpster for a little while now.
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Numbers are a complete mystery these days. I sold my house in Toronto in 2017, and moved into a condo I was renting out. I keep hearing “prices are rising!” but the neighbourhood I sold in is still listing homes about 20% below the price point I sold at. But all of these reports keep saying prices are at new highs.
It’s the weighted distribution. Price floor can increase in specific segments, and take the whole number higher. I don’t believe it’s a volume adjusted in any way.
Yes, the teardown properties (land value homes) in the Northern areas of Toronto are still down… If your home was in another area, please let me know. I’m looking for a house right now and would love a deal. Right now I’m focused on the Core (South of Dupont) and West of the DVP and East of Dufferin.
Oil slump 2.0 is coming.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/21/oil-markets-oil-supply-russia-opec-in-focus.html
Also a weaker loonie then. This would support higher prices.
Weaker loonie = lower liquidity for funding mortgages. Weakening from lower oil prices limits the BOC’s ability to use an interest rate discount to stimulate borrowing. Save houses, but they can’t afford food.
Saudi Arabia will balance the markets through oil production cuts. They need oil at least US$60 for Brent.
The federal election is TOMORROW, not today.
Today is advanced voting for Scheer and People’s Party of Canada voters!
Rigging the elections for Andrew Scheer I see?
Election IS TODAY!!
That is not how voting work, parties don’t get separate days in which their constituents vote! Advance polls were last week. Today, October 21, 2019 is the Canadian Federal Election
As pathetic and undemocratic as the party you clearly support. Fortunately, only those in blue shirts would be dumb enough to fall for this.
AMBER the election is today…wake up amber…….amber…….u dere ?
Still touting real estate prices are gonna come
Down – wonder how many people have listened to this website and have not locked themselves out