Canadian Real Estate Now In The Deepest Correction Since The 90s, Prices Back To Mid-2021

Canadian real estate is still moving lower, but it’s still a long way from correcting the recent boom. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the price of a benchmark, or typical, home fell once again in January. Home prices have now rolled back more than a year’s worth of gains.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Over $100k Lower Than Last Year

Canadian real estate prices continued to fall last month. The benchmark price fell 0.5% (-$3,300) to $713,700 in January. That brings prices 12.5% (-$103,300) lower than last year. A fairly steep cut, but prices are still very lofty compared to just a few years ago.

Canadian Real Estate Prices

The price of a typical home across Canada, in Canadian dollars.

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Annual Growth Is The Lowest In The Benchmark’s History

The annual growth rate continues to plummet further. The 12.5% decline is significantly larger than the 7.5% drop reported in the prior month. The 12-month change in price now reveals the sharpest drop in the history of the benchmark. It’s a huge change from this time last year, when record growth was approaching.

Canadian Real Estate Price Growth

The 12-month change in Canada’s benchmark home price.

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Canadian Home Prices Are Now $150k Lower Than Peak

Just how far have prices rolled back? The benchmark peaked in March 2022, as did prices in most local markets. Since then, prices have dropped 17.8% ($-154,600) lower, rolling all the way back to August 2021 levels. It’s a huge drop, with prices having rolled back more than a year. 

The absurd gains made over the past few years far outpace the recent drop. While $150,000 sounds like a lot, prices remain 30.9% ($168,400) higher than 2020. Technically, prices haven’t even fallen to the point where it can be referred to as a “crash.”

Canadian home prices continue to fall, but it’s going to be hard to wipe out the past few years. Growth was so absurdly high, it’s nearly impossible without extended price stagnation. However, that’s exactly what experts see, forecasting the drop is around halfway to the bottom, and it will be followed by market stagnation.

9 Comments

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  • Rick Abrams 1 year ago

    How much Canadian wealth is devoured by excessively high housing prices? Not only do homeowners give up a huge portion of their monthly income to landlords and mortgage companies, all that money is removed from the local economy. Guess where it goes.

    • Montgomery Burns 1 year ago

      To you fellow Canadian that planned and owns rentals and shares in those mortgage companies. Thank you fellow Canadian 🙂

  • Lahdeedah 1 year ago

    So question, you released a recent post stating that interest rates are predicted to be cut in the near future and go back down…won’t that simply re-invigorate price growth in future, and not further the current decline? Wouldn’t now be the best time to swoop in, now that the market is still in shock from the increased interest rate effect, before rates are trimmed?

  • André 1 year ago

    When you look at the bubble chart, we should be in the denial phase right now. Might be a small up, then a bigger crash.

  • Kim 1 year ago

    We have seen price corrections much worse than this in the past.
    In the early 80’s from $140 to $80
    In the early 90’s from $450 to $300k. The prices have only started to roll back in this early stage of a bust.

  • A. 1 year ago

    In what city? Prices are still what they were near the peak, some asking even more. Maybe 100k less for a handful but that’s when they are already asking 1.8m for 2000sq ft. The real estate doom porn continues as does the ridiculous housing industry in this country

  • SH 1 year ago

    “Back to 2021 prices”. LOL. We need to go back to 2005.

  • Bloem 1 year ago

    Yes every time you see a forecast in Canadian press its says prices and sales will bounce back later this year. Not s single reason given other than the usual shortage narrative. Now if you look at the ’80’s crash, how long exactly did that crash take to recover? Why is this time different?

  • Gordon Moulden 1 year ago

    The upcoming influx of over 1,000,000 immigrants over the next three years is going to prevent the forecast stagnation as demand for housing continues to grow triggering a new round of price increases until housing construction outweighs demand.

Comments are closed.