Canada’s population is expected to slow in growth but still add a whole lot of people. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data released this morning shows they expect growth to slow. The population is expected to hit 63 million people by 2073, driven almost exclusively by migration. At the same time, the country’s older population is set to explode, which will lead to pressure on resources such as healthcare. Pressures will be less pronounced after they reach their demographic peak, but that will take half a decade.
Canada’s High-Growth Population Driven By Migration
Canada’s population is currently growing very fast. Stat Can estimates 41 million people reside in Canada as of 2024, which was the high-growth projection they made a few years ago. The trend is almost exclusively led by migration. Natural components of growth are working against the country, such as a record low birth rate in 2022, and a life expectancy that has declined for three years in a row.
Canadian Population Estimated To Rise To 64 Million By 2073
High growth isn’t always persistent, so the agency produces various scenarios. These scenarios provide projections for the total population in 2073—ranging from low growth (47.1 million people) to high growth (87.2 million). The agency’s medium projection, the most likely, would reach 62.8 million by 2073—with the growth rate gradually tapering down to 0.79% over the period.
Canadian Population To Age Significantly, Over 75
Total population is one thing, but the demographic makeup is much more important. The share of the population 65 and older is expected to rise from 8.9% in 2023 to a forecast range between 21.9% and 32.3% by 2073, depending on how fast the country ages. The agency notes this trend will become much less pronounced after 2030, once Boomers hit their demographic peak.
Canada’s over 85 population is also set to explode. They see this rising from 896k people in 2023 to a range of 3.3 million to 4.3 million, depending on whether a low or high growth scenario occurs going forward. Stat Can specifically noted this demographic, adding the higher requirements that need to be planned to accommodate, such as expanded healthcare access.
Stat Can is the first to note their projections should not be considered predictions, but scenarios. Although most press releases will lead with the medium-term scenario, the agency emphasizes that analysts should consider the impact of various scenarios, such as economic crisis, war, or natural disaster.
Economic factors are a significant concern, especially since migrants move for opportunity. With Canada’s falling productivity and population growth outpacing its ability to create jobs, many migrants find they were over-promised and undelivered. It’s an issue Stat Can struggles to capture in its population estimates, potentially leading to overestimates.
It’s almost a given that people from China aren’t staying in Vancouver after they graduate. They’re looking for a 10-year visa then return home, holding onto a backup plan.
Housing cant be built to accommodate, its too cold for most, and while old people need more healthcare they usually need less of everything else. Its easy to get people here when there are lots of benefits given out and nothing asked. Charge $100 and see what happens, although many come since its easy to go to the US from Canada.
It’s only easier to go from Canada to the US physically. In terms of papers, the bar is actually higher. Many people come because that myth keeps getting repeated and end up staying in Canada.
Pandemic population boom is due in part to a new segment (strip mall college attendees). Now that is eliminated, so let’s see how fast the rate of growth is in reality.
Are you implying that Canada accepts people for free and then showers them with benefits? Had you tried immigrating, you would find out how many kinds of (non-refundable) fees have to be paid, and then you have to come here with money to show as well.
such as a record low birth rate in 2022, and a life expectancy that has declined for three years in a row
Hmm I wonder why life expectancy is declining? I can only think of 2 reasons, 1 of course drug overdoses, usually younger people so it affects the age, 30-50K a year is significant, although with 40m people and more than 1% a year, that would be about 400K deaths right there..
Like everything, Canada attributes the decline in deaths to COVID. Important to remember anyone uninsured could not be treated during the past years without paying upfront, unless they were a covid patient. So the cause of death may be similar to the US, where healthcare companies billed under the pandemic as a form of “compassion.”
They still need to break down who died of covid and who died “with” covid.
High growth from the recent projection, but low growth from back in the 90s.
There’s a good paper from University of Alberta where Stats Can experts says, “Unavoidably, the projection assumptions reflect the spirit of the era in which they are framed.”
Currently we’re making our projections with the perception the Canada and the US are leaders in the global economy. As that shifts with 70% of the world’s population in countries that disagree with our positions on global politics, that will result in being a less attractive place.
No offense to the people migrating, I’m sure they’re hard working. But Canada isn’t focused on high skill labor, it’s focused on low skill labor to do the grunt work like Dubai. Anyone under the impression these private colleges are going to land them in the upper ranks of an increasingly polarized economy is kidding themselves.
Numbers need to be higher than this to support the economy and keep house prices HIGH.
Many more international students are needed to work at Tim Horton
Great. More suckers in the real estate Ponzi scheme.