If Canadian real estate is in a correction, it forgot to tell buyers in most provinces. CREA data shows the price of a typical home fell nationally in June, even as most of its 9 provincial benchmarks climbed to new highs. In Atlantic Canada, two provinces even made 5-digit jumps over 30 days. You know? Like any totally normal real estate correction.
Canadian Home Prices Down 21%, But Most Provinces Haven’t Heard
Let’s quickly review the national picture for those who need a refresher. The price of a typical home across Canada slipped 0.3% (-$1,900) to $665,600 in June, down 3.6% (-$24,700) from last year and 20.9% (-$175,500) from its March 2022 peak. However, as regular readers have realized, most provinces haven’t seen any correction.
Canadian Home Prices Surge In The East Coast, Drop in Ontario & BC
Canadian home prices, by province: 1-month change in dollars.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Despite the national benchmark falling in June, home prices rose in most provinces—sharply in some cases. PEI led with a massive 7.5% (+$28,833) jump in just 30 days, followed by Nova Scotia at 5.2% (+$23,026), and Newfoundland at 2.3% (+$8,100). All three top performers were in Atlantic Canada, with prices surging even as two of those provinces saw their populations shrink.
Atlantic Canada also led the way lower. New Brunswick home prices fell 1.8% (-$6,230) in June, the largest monthly drop in Canada. It’s the first province in the region to show signs of cooling—and one worth watching in case the weakness spreads. Maybe they just need a spaceport or two?
The other two provinces rounding out the declines were familiar names at this end of the list. Ontario’s benchmark fell 0.5% (-$3,600), while BC prices slipped 0.2% (-$2,100), marking the second- and third-largest declines.
Over the past year, prices rose in six of the nine provinces with benchmark indexes—including all four in Atlantic Canada. Newfoundland leads with a 10.8% (+$34,900), followed by PEI at 9.0% (+$34,133), New Brunswick at 7.0% (+$22,570), and Nova Scotia at 6.2% (+$27,026).
Home Prices In Most Provinces Are At Record Highs
Canadian home prices, by province: percentage change from record high.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
What correction? Most provinces with a benchmark index are either at, or within, 0.1% of their record high: Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec, and Saskatchewan. Two more are roughly 2% below their peaks—New Brunswick at 1.8% lower, while Alberta is off by 2.1%. Yet the price of a typical home across Canada is supposedly down 20.9% from the peak. Right?
Apparently, the only real downturn is in two provinces. BC’s benchmark home price was 15.0% (-$156,100) below its peak last month—a substantial drop, but still smaller than the national decline. One province is doing most of the heavy lifting (or is it heavy dropping?): Ontario, where prices are down 25.2% (-$253,800) from their March 2022 peak. In hindsight, policymakers are cranking out an extraordinary amount of demand stimulus for a “correction” largely confined to two provinces.
