Canada’s central bank is running out of excuses. Headline inflation surged in September, according to Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rising headline inflation is certainly a concern, but it was dwarfed by what the agency omitted: the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core inflation metrics. The BoC recently floated the idea of […]
Canadian real estate revived an old risk: mortgage debt is back in the driver’s seat. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows household credit climbed again in August, driven almost entirely by mortgage debt. While borrowing remains historically slow, mortgages are still growing much faster than other forms of credit—now accounting for nearly 8 in 10 […]
Canadian real estate sellers all had the same brilliant idea last month: list before inventory surges. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows September sales hit a multi-year high, but the volume remained tepid—especially in contrast to the record flood of new listings. Market balance is now the weakest since the ’90s real estate crash, […]
Canadian real estate developers are pulling back, even as policymakers flood the system with incentives. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential building permit values plunged in August, and the drop was even larger after adjusting for inflation. Canadian homebuilders are sending a clear warning signal: the risk is rising even faster than the astronomical […]
Canada’s job market oversold and underdelivered. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data contained a special Labour Force Survey (LFS) supplement examining labour market efficiency in September. The data reveals a huge mismatch—1 in 6 Canadians aren’t working in their field of post-secondary training, and a fifth are overqualified for the work they found. The problem is even […]
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are climbing at the fastest pace in a generation, and that’s only the visible part of the problem. Equifax data shows the rate continued its sharp ascent in Q2 2025, up from record lows barely two years ago. The trend offers only a glimpse of the broader credit stress now rapidly emerging […]
One of Canada’s largest banks just delivered bad news for real estate investors—it’s a bubble already deflating. BMO Capital Markets warns that home prices have been sliding for over three years, more closely resembling the US housing crash in 2007 than Ontario’s last correction. The bank expects a long, drawn-out recovery, cautioning it’s “next to […]
Toronto real estate may have to accept that its pre-pandemic premium is gone. TRREB data shows composite home prices fell further in September, with losses accelerating. A mild uptick in sales was overshadowed by inventory surging to a record high. The demand balance is weaker than during the 90s crash, the region’s last major correction. […]
Canada’s central bank cut interest rates to support a weakening economy, but admits it may not help. The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but its own internal meeting notes reveal uncertainty about the decision. In its Summary of Deliberations, the BoC acknowledges it’s downplaying inflation risks […]
Canada’s job market is worse than it looks, according to one of Canada’s largest banks. National Bank of Canada (NBF) is warning investors the surprising growth in payroll data has been misread as strength, but zooming out reveals it’s now aligning with the weakness observed in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). When combined with plunging […]
