Ottawa is boasting of fiscal anchors, but the latest stress test is about to give taxpayers that sinking feeling. This morning, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released its 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, reviewing Ottawa’s fiscal projections and the probability of meeting them. The non-partisan agency found the federal plan stands up on paper, but […]
Toronto real estate is showing encouraging data, but is it a return to normal or the “return to normal” bubble experts warn of? Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows home prices climbed in May. It was accompanied by a big jump in sales and a significant cut to inventory. As inspiring as these […]
Canada’s central bank is concerned about how the country is financing its debt. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest Financial Stability Report flags the growing role of hedge funds in public bond auctions. They now represent over 40% of new Government of Canada (GoC) bond purchases, often financed with short-term loans secured by GoC bonds […]
Canadian banks aren’t just seeing delinquencies rise—they’re losing market share. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows the arrears rate was unchanged in March. Delinquent mortgages stalled at one of the highest levels in a decade, after doubling from 2022 lows. However, the big story last month was the drop in the number of mortgages held […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian GDP Now Shows Recession, BMO Says Not Quite Canadian GDP surprised the market by falling for a third time in the past year. Real GDP fell 0.1% annualized in Q1 2026, meaning the economy now fits the traditional definition of a […]
The Canadian economy is officially in a technical recession, but at least one Big Six bank says we’re not there. At least, right now. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows real gross domestic product (GDP) fell in Q1 2026. BMO Capital Markets told investors the data will fuel a technical recession debate, but argued the R-bomb […]
Canadians aren’t exaggerating when they complain about this job market—hiring hasn’t been this weak in almost a decade. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows fewer job vacancies in March than last year. Those looking for employment face the weakest vacancy rate in nearly a decade, a red flag for the whole economy. Take This Job & […]
Greater Toronto real estate printed stronger numbers across the board last month. BildGTA and Altus Group data shows new home prices climbed in April, with stronger sales and less inventory. Has the market risen from the dead? Before getting excited, it’s worth diving into the data, as a little context may take the wind out […]
Canada just saw one of its biggest months on record for new businesses, but just as many shut down. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows the number of active businesses fell in February, with the country seeing the fewest since October 2023, a 28-month low. This isn’t a one-off issue: new firms over the past year […]
Canadian building investment is falling despite a wave of public incentives aimed at boosting construction. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows building investment fell sharply in March. Now at a 5-month low, building investment pulled back as residential construction investment fell for a third straight month. Non-residential investment moved higher, but it wasn’t the usual sign […]
