The Canadian population continues to advance at a breakneck speed. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) estimates the population reached a whopping 41 million people in Q1 2024, adding 0.6% (+242.7k) people in the quarter. The seasoanlly adjusted annual rate of growth fell to 3.0%, trimming 0.2 points from the previous quarter. Experts believe it’s too early to tell if a slowdown has begun, but they warn the issues related to the stimulated growth are piling up.
Canadian Population Growth By Segment
Canadian population growth by seasonally adjusted annual number of people per segment.
Source: BMO.
Canada Is Now 100% Reliant On Immigration For Population Growth
Canada’s growth isn’t due to a booming economy or thriving households starting families. It’s entirely due to international migration, representing a whopping 99.3% of growth in the first quarter. Non-permanent residents, primarily composed of temporary workers and study permit residents, represented 600k people when it comes to annualized growth in the first quarter.
Canadian Population Growth Was Slower, But Is It Slow?
The read isn’t quite as straightforward as it has been in most recent quarters. On one hand, the rate of growth decelerated—a sign that growth may be moderating. On the other, these numbers are still astronomically large and one quarter doesn’t make a trend. Are things moderating or still out of control?
One of Canada’s largest banks shared a few thoughts. “These numbers are a bit early to reflect a more hawkish turn on nonpermanent resident inflows by policymakers,” explained Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO.
At the earliest, we won’t get much clarity on the evolution of the trend until year-end. Any slowdown would be dependent on Canada actually enforcing the non-permanent resident visa cap it recently announced, according to the bank. They also remind investors there’s the possibility that any cap is offset by similar migration programs, offsetting any slowdown.
“In the meantime, the stress on housing affordability and infrastructure continues, while labour supply continues to grow…,” warns Kavcic.
If things (especially housing) were the proper prices, more homegrown citizens (for this comment = a person who was born here) would feel secure in the money they earn and highly more likely to have more children.
As things stand, based on our homegrown citizens’ need to earn significant money before having children, we have only immigration to rely on.
We’ll have to wait another generation to see if our homegrown citizens will be OK without earning their ideal money yet still have kids.
First comes the recession.
Then comes the job losses.
Non permanent resident deportations are a definite possibility
Immigration target reductions may not be a choice
Condo foreclosures are a near certainty
Housing shortage will remain (affordability is unlikely to improve)
Banks will continue to ignore OFSI with a large percentage of loans exceeding 35 yr amortizations (otherwise the market will crash and banks will fail)
People will still lose their homes but demand will remain high enough to keep a significant crash from happening.
Real Estate will stagnate for years to come
Your local Real Estate Agent that provided bad investment advice will go into hiding while households that took their advice struggle to stay afloat with mounting interest charges and ever increasing debt.
Inflation will remain high and everyone will pay more intrest.
Population growth needs to remain high to support house prices.
Canada prime minister said that house prices MUST go higher to support the economy. This is a good thing and will make smart people rich.
Spew your nonsense elsewhere, realtor, you and that corrupt prime minister. This country is being destroyed by high house prices – don’t you understand how high property prices feed into the cost of absolutely everything in Canada? Now the unsustainable debt levels will have a drag effect on our economy for decades. But I’m sure you got rich by speculation, and would be bankrupt if prices fell, so go ahead and keep talking your book…
Gurjeet, where I live there is a quiet but clear shift away from supporting high immigration. The thinking is that we are receiving too many people, too fast and that we keep absorb so many people This has been noted in polls on the subject as well. This means that people aren’t as welcoming as they have been in the past. Just yesterday, I observed a customer being quite rude to a store clerk who was a young woman of colour. I don’t want Canada to be a less hospitable place but perhaps the government got immigration & housing policy wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time governments got something wrong.
You may have noticed recent articles on housing supply exceeding demand. This is because people can’t afford current prices let alone higher prices. If Cdns. are priced out of housing in their communities and they blame immigrants for it, Canada really
will become a place where, despite government policy, new comers won’t be welcome.