The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its key overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at this morning’s rate announcement. The move was expected, but the housing downgrade in the BoC’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the real story. Housing received the largest negative revision in the 2026 GDP breakdown, and is expected to weigh on […]
Canada’s attempt to use helicopter money to stimulate building may have the opposite impact. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) building construction rose in December, which sounds like cause for celebration. However, when examined in real terms, it was the worst December in at least five years. Rising interest rates might be the first suspect that comes […]
Canadian real estate sales are slow but the industry is still swallowing the country’s economy. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential investment gained in Q3 2023. The country’s economy is now significantly more reliant on housing than the US during the 2006 housing bubble, and it’s getting worse. Especially as policymakers attempt to slant […]
Canada has relied on housing to drive its economy, but housing may have reached its limit. Residential investment, housing’s most direct contribution to GDP, fell in Q2 2023. Over just two years, residential investment transitioned from nearly 1 in 11 dollars of GDP to the smallest share in over two decades. Canadian Residential Investment Residential […]
Canada’s real estate bubble is popping, and another indicator is flashing a warning. Residential investment as a share of GDP fell again in Q3 2022, after peaking a year before. Such a large drop in housing investment has only ever preceded the popping of a real estate bubble. Central bank research also indicates real home […]
Canada’s economy was a little less dependent on real estate in the last quarter, but still nearly 30% more dependent than the US in 2006.
Canada’s economy is demonstrating it has no clue where to find growth if not through a housing mania. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the gross domestic product (GDP) advanced in Q1 2022. Nearly half of the quarter’s growth was due to residential investment, or homebuilding. Housing has produced such lofty gains, it’s become hard […]
Canada’s economy was briefly less dependent on real estate, but that was short-lived. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential investment outpaced GDP in Q4 2021. As a share of GDP, residential investment is under last year’s record, but rising quickly. An increased reliance on real estate is a trend that began over two decades […]
Canadian real estate has outgrown productive investment for a few years, but it’s never been this bad. National Bank of Canada (NBC) found that Canadians now invest more in homes than businesses. It’s the first time since the early 1960s that housing investment has grown larger than private investment. The “Big Six Bank” says this […]
Canadian real estate prices are rising, but investors are quietly pulling back. In fact, they’re withdrawing their capital at one of the fastest rates in history. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential investment dropped sharply in Q3 2021. This is the component of GDP that covers real estate’s most direct economic output. The GDP […]
