Canadians said goodbye to lower gas prices and hello to higher inflation last month, as the Iran War shocks global oil markets. Gas prices made the sharpest surge on record in March, according to BMO Capital Markets. The bank warns this will drive the Consumer Price Index (CPI) much higher, even before considering the spillover […]
Canadian economic output was set to slow down, but the country showed surprising growth in January, according to Statistics Canada (StatCan). Real gross domestic product (GDP) beat analyst expectations with minor growth, avoiding a “technical recession,” though economists warn the impact of higher energy prices due to the Iran war has yet to be determined. […]
Canada’s central bank is “chasing its tail,” warns a new Bank of Canada (BoC) staff paper. The researchers studied the impact of including mortgage interest in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), discovering the circular logic. The BoC sets interest rates based on CPI, but CPI includes mortgage interest costs driven by those very rates. As […]
Official data tells a story of cooling inflation and strong wage growth, but consumers aren’t buying it. TransUnion’s latest Consumer Pulse survey finds most Canadians say they did better than expected in Q4 2025, but the mood is turning fast. Near-term optimism is sliding, while more households see their finances eroding this year. The credit […]
The Canadian economy is doing better than expected, and things will slow but be fine. That’s the takeaway one gets reading the summary of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, a dive into the full 44-page report reveals that narrative is a statistical mirage, supported by contradictory data points the […]
Temporary factors have muted inflation, but they’re starting to fade. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in December. Excluding gas sends the value soaring, hitting the Bank of Canada’s upper bound. One bright spot is the slowdown in shelter costs, but the distribution was uneven. Only homeowners are seeing slowing […]
Canada’s central bank won’t love what the latest trade data says about the economy. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest merchandise trade data shows a return to deficit territory in October due to surging imports. Demand is running so hot it’s seeking its fix abroad, while demand for Canadian goods is failing to keep up. The imbalance […]
Canadian households saw their wages grow faster than inflation, but those gains failed to keep up with essentials. That was the take from RBC in its 2026 outlook, noting the cost of food and housing continues to outpace incomes. The bank sees inflation pressures moderating further this year, but warns affordability pressures aren’t going away […]
Canadian inflation has been driven by two key pressure points in recent years: shelter and food. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) data shows shelter inflation is finally cooling, helping to keep the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stable in November. But BMO Capital Markets is warning investors that the other half of the problem is flaring up again—food […]
One of Canada’s biggest drivers of inflation is overstated, according to a Big Six bank. A new report from CIBC Economics warns investors that official CPI rent inflation overstates growth. This implies the Bank of Canada (BoC) may be keeping rates higher than needed. It’s a disturbing argument with one problem: It’s not clear if […]
