Most Canadian businesses now expect significantly higher than usual inflation. The Bank of Canada (BoC) Business Outlook Survey for Q1 2022 was released today. One of the key insights is business inflation expectations, which show future sentiment. The survey found a record share of businesses see elevated inflation for at least two more years. […]
Canadian building intentions surged higher as the economy became more dependent on construction. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows building permits surged higher in February. The optimistic rise for the industry is still mostly for the construction of new housing. However, a big (but temporary) boost resulted from rising government spending as well. Canadian Building […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Is About To Experience A “Full-Scale Attack,” Warns Big Six Bank Canada’s oldest bank warned investors of a “full-scale attack” on real estate this week. Climbing mortgage interest costs are just the start. Foreign buyer taxes, vacancy taxes, and […]
Canada’s largest bank is accelerating its forecast for higher interest rates. RBC sees the Bank of Canada (BoC) doubling the overnight rate at the April meeting. The bank is also accelerating its forecast, seeing a sharp and fast tightening cycle. By year end, they expect the overnight rate to hit the highest level in over […]
Ontario’s non-resident speculation tax (NRST) is expanding in size and location. The NRST was a 15% tax on the purchase of residential real estate in the Golden Horseshoe (Greater Toronto). As of March 30, 2022, it’s now 20% and applies to the whole province. Low revenues might have some believing it hasn’t been very effective, […]
US real estate is in the first bubble since the Great Recession, and they might actually address it in time. In December, we revealed a little-known model from the Dallas branch of the US Federal Reserve showing US housing in a bubble. Central bank researchers maintain the model as an early warning system, allowing policymakers […]
Canadian businesses are optimistic about the future, but inflation and wage headwinds are brewing. The CFIB small business confidence survey showed improving confidence in March 2022. It also reveals their expectations of high inflation are rising further. Despite higher inflation, businesses have lower expectations for future wages, a toxic combination. Canadian Small Business Confidence Gets […]
Canadian real estate is disconnecting from reality at a breakneck speed. RBC updated its affordability index for Q4 2021, measuring the share of income needed to buy a home. Housing affordability across most of the country is now out of reach for most households. Buying a home is nearly an “impossible” feat, according to one […]
Canadian mortgages are getting a lot more expensive as bond yields surge higher. The benchmark Government of Canada (GoC) bonds are climbing, influencing fixed-term mortgage costs. Canada hasn’t seen this kind of pressure on bond yields since the 90s, at the peak of the last tightening cycle. This cycle, however, is just getting started. Expect […]
Canadian real estate prices are approaching a mile-long stretch of hurdles. Easy credit conditions are being rapidly reversed, and then some, according to BMO Capital Markets. The bank warned clients of a laundry list of measures designed to cool the market, all hitting at once. They’ll have a limited impact compared to the big market […]
