Canadian real estate has cooled even faster than bears assumed possible. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) indicates it’s just getting started. If historic patterns hold true, the market will see all of 2022’s gains disappear by mid-summer. Unless something changes the trend, home prices are heading in the direction of improved affordability. Sales […]
Policymakers have been telling the public that a soft landing is still possible. However, virtually no one believes it, according to BMO Capital Markets. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter recently explained that market expectations are eroding. Yields and commodity prices are cratering against a backdrop of higher inflation. This isn’t typical unless serious doubts have […]
Canadian real estate is probably fine, but the bank regulator just wants your lender to be extra safe. Earlier today, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) sent an advisory on real estate secured lending (RESL). OSFI, who oversees federally-regulated financial institutions (FRFIs), clarified expectations for risky mortgages. Lenders have been asked to […]
The global economy may be in for a bumpy ride, warns the central bank for central banks. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) broke down the environmental variables typical of those preceding a hard landing. Most advanced economies fit this bill and are advised to start tackling inflation immediately. Those in the worst circumstances are […]
American agreements to buy existing-home sales improved better-than-expected, but still trended lower. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) made a small improvement in May. However, pending home sales, a leading indicator of future home sales, is way below last year. NAR expects this trend to continue, forecasting existing-home sales will […]
Canada will need to pump the breaks to stabilize its overheated economy. That was the message from RBC Economics’ latest research on inflation. Sky-high inflation has forced central banks to adopt an aggressive rate hike schedule. Cooling inflation (and the economy) with rapid rate normalization is now the plan. The slowdown is expected to begin […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Cooldown Is Just Getting Started: BMO Slowing Canadian real estate sales are dragging renovation spending lower. An analysis from BMO Capital Markets shows renovation retail spending has begun to fall. Both segments are still elevated but rate hikes are […]
Canadian real estate values are soaring, but owners don’t want to sell to tap that windfall. Instead they’re taking out loans against the equity — big loans. Regulatory filings reveal a surge in home equity line of credit (HELOC) debt in April 2022. However, HELOC debt is just a part of the total for home […]
Canada’s booming population growth is obfuscating a trend policymakers should be watching — emigration. Emigration, the act of moving from a country, saw an unusual surge in Q1 2022. It was the biggest Q1 for emigration in a half decade, shows Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data. The recent surge marks the end of a trend […]
Advanced economies replicating the same monetary policy mistakes are facing monster inflation. Now with additional external pressures driving inflation even higher, policy is tightening as the economy deteriorates. That’s the opposite of what usually happens, warns global forecasting firm Oxford Economics. Typically as the economy slows, rate cuts help to craft a soft landing. This […]
