Toronto real estate is starting to look a little more volatile than it has over the past few months. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows a mixed performance for composite benchmark prices in July 2021. Prices increased across the Greater Region, but actually fell in the City of Toronto. Both regions also saw a rapid deceleration in price growth, as prices began to roll back gains.
Toronto Home Prices Fall, While Suburban Prices Rise
Greater Toronto home prices are slowing in growth, but still inched out a gain last month. The benchmark price reached $1,054,300 in July, up 0.38% ($4,000) from the month before. Composite prices are now up 18.0% from last year. The monthly increase was a big change from the $41,000 gain seen in February.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price
The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.
Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.
In the City of Toronto, existing home prices have begun to slip lower. The benchmark composite fell to $1,102,600 in July, down 0.33% ($3,600) from the month before. Compared to last year, prices are 10.14% higher. Still huge annual gains, but prices are pulling back, despite tighter inventory.
Greater Toronto Home Price Growth Is Falling Across The Region
Greater Toronto existing home prices did see deceleration across the board. The composite’s annual rate of growth fell to 18.0% in July, down from 19.9% the previous month. The previous month also happens to be the highest annual rate of growth seen across the board. A slowdown shouldn’t surprise, considering the increase in July was a tenth of the one seen in February.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change
The annual percent change of TRREB’s benchmark price for all home types.
Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.
The composite benchmark in the City of Toronto is also starting to slow, as prices start to roll back. The City’s annual rate of growth fell to 10.1% in July, a sharp decline from the 12.2% rate seen a month before. City prices have been a little slow to the party, as the suburbs grew more than twice as fast. Now Toronto’s already losing some of its steam.
Greater Toronto real estate prices continue the recent trend of faster suburban growth. A fall in the rate wasn’t expected this month, but the industry is forecasting a slow second half to the year. The only thing that is surprising is seeing price growth slow at the same time as inventory tightens.
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They sure left that part out of the release. Toronto composite moving sideways for a month, then the floor gets kicked out from under it. 🍿
BuT tHeRe’S nO iNvEnToRy!
I’d love to hear that line while explaining prices are falling now.
I’m bullish on Toronto real estate for a lot of reasons. One of them is NOT because of how prices moved earlier this year.
There is no possible way to justify a $40,000 per month price increase, without understanding you may have paid a little more than you should have. Those gains will be wiped out, and the market will be healthier for it.
Now I’d start worrying if there was no pullback after that. Housing would swallow whatever is left of the economy. Which is doing just fine… but millions of people are still unemployed. Excellent job, Tiff.
It’s so sad when people don’t understand basic arithmetic. All the simple folk decrying averages. Hey…I’m an average Joe so when they say the average home prices are $1.1 million that means housing meant for an average Joe like me is completely unattainable.
Quality of life that ought to be available to an average Joe is completely unattainable now.
You can keep building smaller and worse places to live on the bottom end. Then you can keep saying, well, we have “houses” on the bottom end you can afford (even if it’s a crawlspace under what used to be an actual house), so why are you complaining? It’s “attainable.” Even though everything of value has been destroyed, and the simple things you enjoyed as a child will not be available to your children.
Toronto was a really nice place to make a living for you and your family when I first moved here in 1986. Still very nice people, but you’re damned if you try to make a living here just because of home prices.
I don’t know where I would move today, but things back home are improving while things here are getting worse.
I think this a lot these days. My cousins back home are doing really well. Good businesses, strong earnings. Millionaires by income.
I’m a millionaire because my house makes more than I made 10 years ago per month. I can’t spend it without paying the bank a percent every month. I can’t sell it without downsizing to get any of the money. It’s not at all the same as real money coming in.
Curious if you don’t mind my asking, where is “back home” for you. I have been exploring trajectories in different countries and considering whether relocation might be a worthwhile option, given what is happening with the cost of living in Canada.
Does that mean if you bought in June as a high ratio buyer, you’re underwater? Cause that would be a shame right after the CMHC lowered qualifying criteria’s again, and taxpayers become liable for the bank losses as well.
Toronto and Vancouver are deep in bubble territory, they will pop for sure. However other under priced markets will surge. Investors will go where the gains are.
Doubtful. Everywhere will relax if/as Toronto and Vancouver crash.
how much of this price fade is a result of the mix changing? low house stock and lots of condo stock, so the mix is flipping back.
does anyone calculate the actual mix of houses vs condos on a month over month basis?
is the raw data available?
would be interesting to see!
A million dollars for a home in a poorly designed city, with poor transit, embarrassingly few subway lines and horrible weather. Never ceases to amaze me.
That reasoning is why I didn’t lever up and buy 10 years ago.
Then I travelled the world and saw every other first-world city for comparison.
And by then it was too late.
Greenbelt and immigration will never allow the prices to fall. Never ever!!! In 10 years the GTA average home price will be 3 million dollars.
Never say never!