Toronto real estate sales may be cooling, but that didn’t stop condo prices from hitting a new high. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show condo prices hit a new record in May, despite slowing sales. The slowing sales are starting to become a drag on price growth, as inventory swells to a multi-month high.
Toronto Condo Prices Hit An All-Time High
The price of a typical home, called the benchmark, hit a new high for condos across Greater Toronto. TREB reported a benchmark of $501,000 in May, an 8.29% increase compared to last year. The City of Toronto reached $527,100, a 10.12% increase from last year. Despite the record high, the growth rate of prices is something to watch closely.
Toronto Benchmark Condo Price
The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
To give some context to the that growth rate, it’s huuuge… but tapering quickly. The 8.29% increase observed across TREB is down from the 30.6% peak growth hit last year. The City of Toronto’s 10.12% annual growth is down from a peak of 32.6%. For context, the median rate of growth for condo apartments since 2005 has been under 5% for both regions. If the laws of mean reversion applies to condos, growth will plunge below the median line. How long it stays there is dependent on how far below it goes.
Toronto Benchmark Condo Price Change
The annual percent change of price, for a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
The Median Condo Sale Price Is Up Over 9%
Those skeptical of the benchmark have begun using the median sale price. TREB reported a median sale price of $499,800, a 9.24% increase from last year. The City of Toronto saw the median sale price rise to $537,000, a 10.72% increase from last year. Median sale prices are not adjusted for size or quality, like the benchmark is, but do show the flow of money. In this case, it’s still higher.
Toronto Median Condo Sale Price
The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Average Toronto Condo Price Rises Over 5%
The average sale price is tapering a little more than the other two metrics. TREB had an average sale price of $562,892, a 5.7% increase from last year. The City of Toronto had an average sale price of $602,804. a 6.5% increase from last year. Much like the median, the average sale price isn’t helpful for determining how much you’ll pay. Rather, it’s a better indicator of upgrade flow.
Toronto Average Condo Sale Price
The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Condo Sales Are Down Over 15%
Prices might be up, but condo sales continue to decline. TREB reported 2,393 condo sales in May, a 15.5% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 1,745 of those sales, a 13.8% decline compared to last year. Declining sales are normal as prices rise, since price rise normally rise due to a lack of inventory. Strangely, that’s not the case right now.
Toronto Condo Sales Vs. New Listings
The number of condo sales, vs newly listed condos per month in Toronto.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Condo Inventory Grows Over 13%
New condo listings are on the decline across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 4,260 new listings, a 15.69% decline from last year. Of those new listings, 2,966 new listings were located in the City of Toronto, a 17.97% decline from last year. The decline in new listings didn’t stop inventory from building though.
The sharp decline in sales continued to push active listings higher. TREB reported 3,993 active condo listings, a 13.79% increase from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,552 of those sales, a 1.71% increase compared to last year. This is the highest active listings for condos in 21 months. That’s not that long, but people tend to have short memories.
Toronto Active Condo Listings
The number of condo listings available for sale in Toronto.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Toronto condo prices hit an all-time high, but price growth is rapidly tapering. Lower sales, more inventory, B-20 Guidelines, and higher interest rates are going to be a drag on future price growth. On the other hand, there’s still buyers that want a condo so bad, they’re willing to go to subprime lenders.
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Printing new highs while rate of change is negative and in steep decline with only a few months before going negative. Where have I seen this before? BD I think you accidentally posted the SFH chart from late last year! Or what happened to housing is now hitting condos because shocker, everyone was just chasing yield…now for the narrative that Toronto is in the rebound and it is a great time to buy. Yawn, this is getting old. BD4L.
But I heard it was a great time to buy a condo. From someone that owns a condo, and is looking to sell it. He wouldn’t lie to us, would he? lol.
Probably use to subsidizing someones monthly rent, now he wants to share his gains with the people. Sounds like a great comrade whose trying to do you a favor Jim. Jump on it!
Every time I read about real estate prices going back up and the habitual posters/BD trying to make it sound like they are still right about a pending collapse, I get reminded of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixNVqng4E9A
Just stay down, stop talking trash fool
Yes, you are very right. It’s a surprise this shitty blog has lasted so long. No more talking trash. Thank you muffin.
Funny, because I feel the same way about prices. Those that don’t understand monetary movements and the impact on homes are the real fools. Either prices stay the same and move higher, while the value of $CAD deteriorates to record lows, or the value of homes goes down, as CAD recaptures values.
All of you retards cheering on higher home prices understand it’s a vanity metric, especially since almost all assets are priced in USD. Suppress monetary correction, you get higher fuel and food costs, but you own a million dollar bungalow. Correct monetary displacement, your bungalow goes back to $400k, but you don’t have to pay as much for everything else.
People like you that are dumb as mud don’t understand that, you’re “making” so much money. Lucky for the finance community, the higher these shitboxes go, the less Canadian pesos we hold… which also makes us much more money on the conversion.
Canadian peso? LOL. Do you realize that Canada has the 10th largest economy in the world? You probably didn’t. All I know is that YTD, Toronto homes have dropped 5.5% in USD terms. Steal!
Can someone answer what happens when these subprime buyers see the price of their home drop? They sell or accept higher rates, since they still won’t qualify at a traditional lender, correct?
We don’t know and more so we don’t know the impact of the community lending. It isn’t just a case of accepting higher rates or a loss on the asset; can you reasonably afford to double your monthly payment? If you’re running neg and racking up debt to survive, are you able to rebound from a loss on the house? Do you have to declare bakruptcy? We don’t know and that’s what is scary since we dodged a bullet in 2008 so this has been 10 years in the making.
Monthly gains for condos are getting smaller, but there’s no reason to believe they won’t stay within range of pay.
Feb +$9,400
Mar +$8,800
Apr +$7,600
May +$5,400
You’re right. Ignore the trend and chive on.
To infinity and beyond!
Like I said above Sammy, few months…seen the same comments before SFH went negative.BD4L.
Lambs to the slaughter… lots of “wealth” will be disappearing soon.
Those who don’t learn history and bound to repeat it.
I like the quotes. Bueno. Live in the light. BD4L.
Don’t respond to these assholes obviously BD is having an effect on their wallet, just let it.
Very good podcast from very smart analysts (21:18):
http://podbay.fm/show/1207583745/e/1529354106?autostart=1
Please remember that this is a very little part of all the risks and issues with Canadian RE market.
Thanks Xelan!
Dont you love the “know it alls” posting on BB boards. Always the big, tough ,smart and rich ones right……
TIm2! Where is Tim1? I guess if being a “know it all” is commenting on the facts, bring in other info and generally remember that guy slike you, just 6 months ago, were chirping about SFH. I guess what I really love are the people who come to this block, see the info and then decide to make snarky comments to make themselves feel ‘big, tough,smart and..’ well not rich…interesting how everyone seems to think we’re all basement dwellers waiting to cash in our pog collection so we can benefit from a massive crash that our tin foil theories predicted (along with worldwide lizard overlords) Maybe we’re just people who like RE and think the past 5 years have been a fugazi. Some are retired. Some live outside of the effected markets. Regardless, we are all banding together to shine the light on the situation. Make your own choices. We don’t judge. Well I do. A lot….BD4L.
Blue…..I am on your side….lol I was referring to loose lips LL. (tough guy behind a screen).
Tim1/2 is the same and you should show me more love. BECAUSE I am your inside information and leading indicator =)
its getting worse folks….not better.
Go ask the small developers why they are blowing out of land aqs over last 12-36 months……there litterally is blood in the streets, its just getting wiped up fast……sky is not falling, but certains peoples/companies net worth is =)
LOL.. LL is the tough guy alright. He’s been civil the entire time until the habitual posters/bitter renters made it personal. Blue.. going on calling ppl muffins. LOL.
I feel like things around here have been less civilized as of late. I will state this again: it’s to all of our advantages to have insightful, civil discussions based on facts presented from both sides. I don’t assume bulls are trolls and I genuinely want to know what drives their belief. But this place gets pretty muddy the moment we stray from the facts and start name calling. I mean, really guys and gals? Maybe I’m just too f*cking old but it’s kind of a waste of everyone’s time. And c’mon, flaunting your money is about as douchy as it gets. Being rich and humble is truly ballin’… driving around in your Toyota Camry with 10 mil in the bank. That’s the Buffet way. So those on either side who have something of value to add to the discourse, please share. Otherwise, f*ck off.