Greater Toronto new homes sales are cooling. BILD and Altus Group numbers show sales dropped to multi-year lows in November. The decline in sales is combining with higher building activity, sending inventory higher than we’ve seen in the past few years.
Greater Toronto New Detached Prices Fall, While Condos Rise
The price of a new home is up… or down – depending on what you’re going to buy. The benchmark price of condo apartment reached $786,602 in November, up 11.9% from last year. The price for a single family home hit $1,150,823, down 5.9% from last year. The directional trend is much more extreme than is in the resale market.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales Fall Over 20%
New home sales fell across Greater Toronto last month. The Greater Toronto region saw 2,823 new home sales in November, down 20.59% from last year. Condo apartments represented 2,454 of those sales, and were down 23.62% from last year. This was the worst November for sales in the past 6 years.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales
Total November new home sales in Greater Toronto.
Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.
City of Toronto New Real Estate Sales Fall Over 53%
The City of Toronto saw new home sales fall much faster than the suburbs. The City of Toronto represented 1,141 of the total GTA sales in November, down 53.35% from last year. Condo apartments represented 1,124 of the sales in the city, which was down 53.64% from last year. As you’ve probably noticed, the vast majority of the sales declines were in Toronto.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales
Total condo apartment sales in Greater Toronto for November, by region.
Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto New Real Estate Inventory Rises Over 42%
New homes for sales is surging higher across Greater Toronto. An estimated 16,797 new homes were for sale across Greater Toronto in November, up 42.49% from last year. Condos represented 11,254 of those listings, up 34.77% from last year. The number is higher than we’ve seen during the past two years.
Sales Down, Inventory Up
Declining sales and rising inventory is hacking away at the sales to active listings ratio (SALR). Greater Toronto had a SALR of 16.81, down 44% from last year. The ratio is also 56% lower than it was in November 2016. The market is a seller’s market when the ratio rises about 20, and prices are expected to grow. When the ratio falls below 12, it’s a buyer’s market, and prices are expected to decline. Between 12 and 20 is considered “balanced,” which is where we are. The number is trending lower though, so exercise some caution. OK, maybe a lot of caution.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active
The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of November.
Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto new home sales are down, while inventory continues to rise. Inventory is now just above historic levels, which sounds great when the industry says it. However, sales are significantly below historic levels. That means more pressure on home prices to stay where they are, or even drop.
Like this post? Like us on Facebook for the next one in your feed.
Yikes! Just in time for Christmas.
Third worst November in ten years, with prices still rising. Imagine what it’s going to look like when price increase no longer fit the credit capacity.
Interest rates are stalling, but deposit rates are rising which means lending rates will keep rising. It’s going to be hella harder to qualify for pre-sales, especially now that China’s credit is crashing.
Where my killers at? Not.a.peep. Tick tock. BD4L.
Blue
Your Tick tock is going boom!
I think they died in the explosion
Like a rock thrown in the lake, creating a ripple outward. That’s how I envision the data today.
Toronto was the first to rise, creating a perceived value increase ripple out into the suburbs.
Toronto is the first to fall. While those still looking for ‘affordable’ housing are moving further out into the suburbs and buying.
Toronto always happens first, the suburbs always follow.
Agents often broadcast the misconception that downtown TO is downturn safe. Which may be one reason prices there end up being even more artificially inflated, and end up falling that much further. Many downtown areas saw prices tank by 50% or more in the early 90s.
And that’s with nowhere near the current levels of speculation and debt.
Buying a condo (old/new) in GTA at these prices makes no sense!
Buying a new build condo in GTA at these inflated prices is senseless!
The fall will be brutal! Knowing what we already know and what is coming, how could it not!
Canadian insolvency breaking out massively, Hoyes just had the best November on record since they opened in 1999 and December is looking worse. It’s normally a cool down month for business but it’s up 57% and they’re extending hours… a law firm… extending hours.
The jig is up.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/business-booms-insolvency-trustees-amid-100000019.html
Canadian dollar is falling versus US. I expect money leaving Canada before it becoming worthless. I expect immigrant to sell and leave Canada before their investment become worthless. I expect Bank of Canada force to raise rate to save a falling dollar and stop Canada hyperinflation.
Deflation is everywhere.
Except my grocery bill. The less grams for more money, horror continues.
the sales drop in 2012 vs 2011 lead to a very lean inventory in 2016 (4 years to construct)… which lead to the huge price spikes…. also the 2009-2011 period of large sales, lead to a lot of condo inventory 4 years later 2013-2015 which translated into limited price appreciation vs houses. What’s great about condo analysis is you can see the supply rising or falling 4 years in advance…. too bad nobody was pouding the the table to buy Condos in 2014/2015 (except Lanterra) as prices rose 50% in the next 3 years… the data was there.
so based on the huge spike in sales in 2016 and 2017, expect to see soft pricing in 2020 or 2021.
Nonesense. The housing bubble peaked in 2013.
The news out of Toronto seems to be consistently pretty glum. From my view in Halifax, we seem to be getting our share of condo buyers and investors alike. Looking pretty good for 2019! Record-smashing condo sales – Halifax has never seen these types of numbers before! A lot of Asians are coming east!